posted on 2024-05-15, 15:55authored byJazlynn Hall, Manette E Sandor, Brian J Harvey, Sean A Parks, Anna T. Trugman, A. Park Williams, Winslow Hansen
<p dir="ltr">Forests are a large carbon sink and could serve as natural climate solutions that help moderate future warming. Thus, establishing forest carbon baselines is essential for tracking climate-mitigation targets. Western US forests are natural climate solution hotspots but are profoundly threatened by drought and altered disturbance regimes. How these factors shape spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon change over time is poorly resolved. Here, we estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions with national inventory data (2005-2019) to determine: 1) current carbon distributions, 2) underpinning drivers, and 3) recent trends. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead carbon within ecoregions. We assessed trends using linear models. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southwest (SW) ecoregions were most and least carbon dense, respectively. Climate was an important carbon driver in the SW and Lower Rockies. Fire reduced live and increased dead carbon, and was most important in the Upper Rockies and California. No ecoregion was unaffected by fire. Harvest and private ownership reduced carbon, particularly in the PNW. Since 2005, live carbon declined across much of the western US, likely from drought and fire. Carbon has increased in PNW ecoregions, likely recovering from past harvest, but recent record fire years may alter trajectories. Our results provide insight into western US forest carbon function and future vulnerabilities, which is vital for effective climate change mitigation strategies.</p><p dir="ltr"><b>File and folder list:</b></p><p dir="ltr">README_Hall_forest_carbon.docx - contains list and descriptions for all code files.</p><p dir="ltr">MainScript_240227_clean.Rmd</p><p dir="ltr">ChecksBalances- contains Map_FIALocation_year.R (1 file)</p><p dir="ltr">reviewercomments- contains disturbancecomparison_fia_externaldatasets.R (1 file)</p><p dir="ltr">Section1_SourceData- contains identify_studyarea.R, shapefil_readin.R (2 file)</p><p dir="ltr">Section2_ProcessData- contains CTrends._ShapeSelection_lm_livedead.R, ReadFIA_CalculateCarbon_LiveDead.R (2 files)</p><p dir="ltr">Section3_Drivers- contains BeetleDisease_Processing.R, CBI_prepare_fires.R, drivermaps.R, Drivers_NAFD_ForestDisturbance.R, Drivers_RS_CBI_fireseverity_240214.R, Drivers_WUMI_wildfire_updated_230307.R, Harvest_FIA.R, ProcessAllDrivers_230202.R, ProcessDrivers.R, select_variables_240227.R (10 files)</p><p dir="ltr">Section4_ - contains CMYK_legend.R, PD_CalcFunctions_240227.R, PD_CalcFunctions_240227_dead.R, PD_Plots_240227.R, PD_Plots_240227_dead.R, RandomForest_function_240227.R, RandomForest_function_240227_dead.R (7 files)</p>
Funding
Western US Fire Ecology and Forest Resilience Science Collaborative | Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF11974)
Wildfire Risk and Forest-ecosystem Change in the Western US | Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF10763)
Quantifying realistic current and future carbon storage in forests of the northeastern United States and western North America | Environmental Defense Fund
Quantifying realistic current and future carbon storage in forests of the northeastern United States and western North America | Three Cairns Group
Collaborative Research: Predicting ecosystem resilience to climate and disturbance events with a multi-scale hydraulic trait framework
We aggregated forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data (2005-2019) to estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions to determine current carbon distributions and recent trends. We assessed trends using linear models. We also assembled a suite of potential drivers underpinning current carbon distributions from existing publicly available datasets. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead forest carbon within ecoregions.
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